How do ecologists estimate the total number of species present in the world?
Ecologists cannot count every single species directly, so they use several clever methods to estimate the total number of species on Earth. Here’s how they do it:
1. Sampling and Extrapolation:
• Scientists study a small, well-known area (like a rainforest plot or coral reef section).
• They count all species there carefully.
• Then, they scale up (extrapolate) their findings to larger areas based on habitat types and conditions.
Example:
If 100 species are found in 1 hectare of rainforest, and there are 100 million hectares of similar rainforest, they estimate from there.
2. Ratios Based on Well-known Groups:
• Some groups like birds and mammals are well studied.
• Ecologists use the known ratios of birds/mammals to less studied groups (like insects, fungi) to guess the unknown diversity.
Example:
If there are 10 bird species for every 100 insect species in a studied area, they use that ratio for other areas too.
3. Using Discovery Curves:
• As more species are discovered over time, the rate of discovery slows down.
• By plotting species discovery over time, ecologists can predict how many more species remain undiscovered.
4. DNA and Molecular Techniques:
• Scientists now use DNA barcoding to detect hidden (“cryptic”) species.
• This reveals species that look identical but are genetically different, helping correct underestimates.
Current Estimates:
• Scientists believe there are about 8.7 million species on Earth (±1.3 million).
• Only around 1.5–2 million species have been formally described so far.